Indices
Macro-driven analysis of global equity indices — providing strategic positioning guidance across the US, European, Asian, and emerging market index universe.
Global Macro Expressed Through Index Positioning
Equity indices allow investors to express broad macro views efficiently, at low cost, with high liquidity. They are often the most effective instrument for implementing top-down positioning changes in a portfolio.
When our macro framework signals a shift in the global growth outlook, sector rotation, or a change in the relative attractiveness of different geographies, index instruments allow clients to act on those views quickly and with precision — without the need to select individual stocks in each region or sector.
We provide weekly macro-driven index commentary covering all major global equity benchmarks, with explicit views on relative valuation, earnings revision momentum, fund flow trends, and the technical structure of each market. Our guidance covers both direction and timing — giving clients the context to make informed decisions about when and how to adjust index exposure within their portfolio.
Coverage Across All Major Markets
US Indices
S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Russell 2000. The deepest coverage in our index universe — with weekly commentary on earnings revision momentum, valuation multiples, sector rotation, and the macro backdrop driving the world's largest equity market.
European Indices
FTSE 100, DAX 40, CAC 40, Euro Stoxx 50, and IBEX 35. European equities offer significant valuation discounts to US markets that periodically present compelling opportunities — particularly when the EUR/USD cycle and European central bank policy are creating tailwinds for European corporate earnings.
Asian & Pacific Indices
Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, ASX 200, and selected emerging Asian benchmarks. We provide macro analysis on the Japan reflation trade, Chinese equity market cycles, and the broader Asia-Pacific growth outlook — with specific attention to the USD/JPY and CNY dynamics that heavily influence regional equity performance.
Emerging Market Indices
MSCI Emerging Markets, MSCI EM ex-China, and regional emerging market benchmarks. EM equities offer diversification benefits and structural growth exposure, but require careful timing relative to USD strength, commodity cycles, and domestic political risk — factors our macro framework specifically addresses.
Sector Indices
Technology, financials, energy, healthcare, consumer, and other sector-specific indices for clients who want targeted sector exposure without individual stock selection risk. We use sector index analysis both for direct positioning and as a top-down input into individual stock selection within our equity coverage.
Volatility Indices
VIX and global volatility indices as both a market sentiment indicator and an asset class in their own right. We provide specific guidance on volatility positioning for clients who want to hedge portfolio risk or express a view on near-term market uncertainty through volatility instruments.
What Drives Our Index Views
Interest Rate Cycle
The most important macro driver of equity index valuations over the medium term. We track central bank policy, yield curve dynamics, real interest rates, and inflation expectations across all major economies — and translate these into explicit views on the appropriate price-earnings multiple for each regional index.
Earnings Revision Momentum
Earnings revision momentum — the direction of analyst estimate changes across the index — is one of the most reliable short-to-medium-term drivers of index price performance. We track earnings revisions weekly across all major indices, using positive revision momentum as a key input in our overweight/underweight decisions.
Fund Flow Analysis
We monitor institutional fund flows into and out of each region weekly — using ETF flow data, EPFR fund flow reports, and positioning data from the CFTC. Sustained outflows from a region, even in the context of attractive valuation, can signal that the catalyst for re-rating is still absent and that patience is required.
Relative Valuation
We assess each index on a relative basis — comparing current price-to-earnings, price-to-book, and cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratios against historical averages, peer regions, and the risk-free rate. Extreme relative valuations — either cheap or expensive — are often the most reliable long-term predictor of forward index returns.
Position Your Portfolio with Global Macro Intelligence
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