Commodities
Gold, silver, crude oil, natural gas, and agricultural markets — analysed through macro, supply/demand, and geopolitical frameworks to identify durable positioning opportunities.
Real Assets in a World of Paper Claims
Commodities occupy a unique role in a diversified portfolio — offering inflation protection, geopolitical risk hedging, and direct exposure to the physical economy at a time when financial assets are priced to perfection in many markets.
Unlike equities or bonds, commodities have intrinsic use value — they are consumed, processed, or stored by the real economy. Their pricing is determined by physical supply and demand dynamics that operate largely independently of financial market sentiment, making them a genuine diversifier when traditional asset correlations rise during market stress.
We integrate commodity analysis into our broader macro framework — using commodity prices as both a signal about global growth expectations and as a direct source of return for client portfolios when cycle conditions are favourable. Our approach combines fundamental supply/demand analysis with technical positioning and CFTC commitment of traders data to identify the optimal entry and exit points within each commodity cycle.
Across All Major Commodity Sectors
Precious Metals
Gold and silver — the foundational inflation hedges and safe-haven assets of the modern portfolio. We monitor central bank purchasing activity, real interest rates, USD dynamics, and ETF flow data to assess the macro backdrop for precious metals, while technical analysis identifies specific entry and exit levels within each trend.
Energy — Crude Oil
WTI and Brent crude — the most actively traded physical commodities globally. Our energy analysis integrates OPEC+ production decisions, US rig count data, inventory levels, geopolitical risk premiums, and seasonal demand patterns into a comprehensive supply/demand model that underpins our price forecasts and trading recommendations.
Natural Gas
European TTF and US Henry Hub natural gas — markets driven by weather, storage, LNG export capacity, and the ongoing energy transition. We provide seasonal analysis and long-term structural views on the role of natural gas as a transition fuel and the capital allocation implications for energy producers and utilities.
Industrial Metals
Copper, aluminium, nickel, and other industrial metals where Chinese demand, global manufacturing cycles, and the energy transition supply chain create significant price volatility and opportunity. Copper in particular is a leading indicator of global growth that we monitor as both a macro signal and a trading opportunity.
Agricultural Commodities
Wheat, corn, soybeans, and soft commodities. Agricultural markets are driven by weather, harvest cycles, geopolitical disruptions to trade flows, and currency dynamics in major exporting countries. We provide research on agricultural positioning for clients seeking exposure to food security themes and supply chain disruption scenarios.
Portfolio Hedging
Commodities as portfolio insurance — using gold, oil, and agricultural positions explicitly to hedge against inflation, currency debasement, and geopolitical tail risk. We provide specific hedging recommendations for clients who want commodity exposure for protective rather than return-generating purposes within their overall portfolio construction.
How We Analyse Commodity Markets
Supply & Demand Modelling
We build supply/demand balance sheets for each major commodity we cover — modelling production, consumption, inventory dynamics, and the price level required to incentivise new supply. This fundamental framework identifies structural imbalances that can persist for months or years and provides the basis for long-term positioning recommendations.
Geopolitical Risk Assessment
Commodities are uniquely sensitive to geopolitical developments — production disruptions, trade restrictions, and sanctions can move markets dramatically and rapidly. We monitor geopolitical risk systematically and integrate it into our commodity price forecasts, providing clients with early warning of potential supply disruptions that consensus models often underweight.
CFTC Positioning Data
We analyse Commitment of Traders reports from the CFTC weekly — tracking the positioning of commercial hedgers, large speculators, and small traders in commodity futures markets. Extreme positioning by large speculators in either direction is a reliable contrarian signal that has historically preceded significant commodity price reversals.
Seasonal Pattern Analysis
Many commodity markets exhibit strong and reliable seasonal patterns — driven by weather, planting and harvest cycles, winter demand for energy, and inventory building patterns. We incorporate seasonal analysis into our recommendations, using it to refine entry and exit timing within the broader fundamental and macro framework.
Access Real-Time Commodity Intelligence
Open a client account to access our full commodities research library, real-time price data across all major commodity markets, and portfolio hedging guidance.
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